Texans Taking Big Gamble With Trade

Matt Schaub will finally get his chance to be a starting quarterback, while former first overall pick David Carr needs to pick up the pieces of his shattered football career.

The Houston Texans swung a deal with the Atlanta Falcons yesterday to pick up Schaub, a quarterback with that dreaded word potential hanging around him, but who's only started two games in his three-year career.

The Falcons and Texans swapped first round picks this season and Atlanta will get Houston's second round pick this year and next.

Schaub signed a six-year, $48 million contract with the Texans, a move that officially consummates the trade. As part of the deal, Schaub -- who played golf with Houston coach Gary Kubiak on Monday in a get-acquainted session, the Houston Chronicle reported -- will receive $7 million in guarantees.

Schaub, 25, will earn roughly $20 million in the first three years of the contract.

This is definitely a high-stakes gamble for the Houston organization. Giving that kind of money and handing a starting job to an unproven quarterback could be franchise suicide. Did Bob McNair forget that he's done this once before with a man named Carr?

And in all fairness to Carr, the Texans surrounded him with mediocre talent and an incredibly bad offensive line for five years. Will Schaub be productive if the franchise leaves him out to dry, talent-wise, like it did Carr?

There's no doubt that Schaub has talent and many teams in the league coveted his services. But to give that kind of money to a guy who has yet to win a regular-season start and who barely completed 50 percent of his pass attempts in three seasons with the Falcons, is a little absurd in my book.

Just more proof of the overspending being done in free agency this season.

The deal benefits Atlanta the most. the trade allows the cap-strapped team to essentially recoup the $2.3 million qualifying offer it made to Schaub and invest that money elsewhere. And the haul the team received in the trade -- a swap of first-round choices in 2007 and second-round picks in the 2007 and 2008 drafts -- provides Atlanta with considerable flexibility.

The Falcons now own three selections among the top 44 picks in this year's draft: the eighth choice in the first round and the seventh and 12th selections in the second round. Armed with that kind of ammunition, the Falcons could parlay those three choices to move up the draft board in the first round, perhaps to nab hometown hero Calvin Johnson, the former Georgia Tech wide receiver. Or the Falcons could combine the two second-round picks to acquire another choice near the middle of the first round.

As for Carr, his once promising future looks a little bleak right now. Cleveland, Minnesota and Miami (provided the Trent Green deal falls through) appear to have some interest but are willing to play a wait and see strategy.

The Texans want a first day pick for Carr, but if no takers are found, he'll be released outright. There's no way Houston will pay $6 million to a backup QB. The above mentioned teams are willing to play the waiting game, leaving Carr in football limbo for now.

Bob McNair and head coach Gary Kubiak are putting their faith in a young, unproven quarterback to get them over the hump and into the playoffs. Only time will tell if this huge gamble will make or break the Texans fortunes.